It’s finally here, folks! Our much ballyhooed, frequently teased, oft-delayed player-by-player odds for Survivor: ONE WORLD! And this time we’re sweetening the deal by including celebrity look-alikes. Yes, these predictions are coming five episodes late, but that just gives us better insight and helps us provide you with more accurate, educated odds. So let’s get to it, A-B-C style.
Alicia: If not for Colton, you’d probably take the crown as The Worst. As it is though, the two worst seem to have allied with each other and found common ground in being The Worst. She fashions herself as a villain, and a tough bitch, but she’s yet to truly display the physical or social skills that will get her to the end (she has, however, displayed far too much of her chest, sporting a variety of wildly ill fitting tops). If she sticks with Colton, Team The Worst could actually, grossly, go far, that is if they don’t kill each other first. Odds of winning: 30-1
Chelsea: Chelsea is a bit of a dark horse. She’s shown that she can handle herself when it comes to jungle living, by catching not one, but two chickens with her bare hands. And she’s shown the good sense to stay out of confrontation when other members of the former all-women Salami Tribe turned on each other at Tribal Council. She seems like she’s going to lay low, but with her good looks and physical skills she’ll never be completely off the radar. Over on the new Salami Tribe she’s wisely formed a foursome with Kim, Troyzan and Jay, and has earned Kim’s trust to the degree that Kim went ahead and disclosed her Immunity Idol to Chelsea. We’re not quite sure of her overall game plan yet, but that’s okay. There’s still plenty of game left for Chelsea. Odds: 6-1.
Christina: Christina looked like a goner in episode one, but Kourtney’s injury and subsequent exit from the game gave X-tina a reprieve. Still, her willingness to deal with and make deals with the men early on was a red flag for the female tribe, and their lack of trust in her has not subsided. She was spared last week in favor of a clearly superior in every way Monica, but if the new Manano-Monica tribe goes back to Tribal Council tonight we suspect X-tina will be the neXt to go. Odds: 80-1
Colton: The Worst just keeps getting worse. We wish we could say that Colton is a lock to go home this week, or even the next, but as long as he has the Idol, and as long as he keeps playing with dummies, he’s going to stick around. However, while he’s successfully pulled the strings on two tribes, if and when (and we think it’s more of a when, unfortunately) he makes it to the merge, he’ll arrive with a tremendously weak alliance and will be going up against much stronger players that won’t be so easily manipulated. At some point he’ll have to play that Idol. Or, he won’t and his arrogance will dig his own grave. We kinda prefer the latter. Odds: 15-1
Jay: Jay is the player to which we’ve warmed the most over the course of the first five episodes. At first, we were turned off by his model good looks, his peach tank tops and his aw-shucks on helium drawl. But he quickly showed himself to perhaps be the only reasonable person on the male tribe, and distinguished himself from the douchbaggery of Team Muscle. As noted above, he’s hooked up with Troyzan (ew), Chelsea and Kim, which seems like a pretty solid four as the game moves forward. Plus, despite his muscles, we’re not convinced he’s a true physical threat, so he may have a relatively small target on his back after the merge. Odds: 8-1
Jonas: Possibly the most clueless player in the game right now, surviving just by doing whatever Colton says, and appearing bewildered by the whole process. We’re wondering if he’s ever even seen Survivor before, judging by his actions and reactions. He continues to blindly follow Colton, which will only get him as far as the merge. Unless the remaining challenges all require experience using a fishing net, it’ll be an uphill battle for
Jason Jonas. Odds: 75-1
Kat: Unfortunately for Kat there are other people who are capable of tending to the fire, so her usefulness to any tribe has greatly diminished. Almost went home in week two, but the all-girls school chose beauty over age and ousted the far more capable (and less flatulent) Nina instead. However, the longer Kat hangs in there, the more chance she has to prove that first impressions can be misleading, especially if she stops doing moronic things in challenges (or if she sits out every challenge). We actually think she has a great shot to make it to the final three…as the player who gets zero votes for the million. Odds: 60-1
Kim: She was our early pick for this season’s Sophie, and so far she’s looking good to fulfill that potential. In fact, by going out and finding the Immunity Idol last week, she’s actually indicating that she might play a more high-profile game than Sophie, which may or may not work to her benefit. Our gut, now, tells us that between her strategy and athletic ability she’s going to appear as a much bigger threat than Sophie, so, despite her physicality and cunning, Kim may have a tougher road to the end. Odds: 10-1
Leif: Despite possibly being a vampire, he’s proven to be a hard worker around camp during daylight hours. But he’s also proven to have a guilty conscience and trouble keeping secrets, which has already made his teammates suspicious. It’s amazing that no one has made an issue of his size yet, but that’s certainly going to be in their minds as they move forward. Also, no one will want to go up against a little person in the final three, so while Leif has a chance to hang in there til the merge if he keeps his mouth shut, we can’t see how he gets close to the end. 150-1.
Big Mike: Made the first big move in the game, stealing from the women within the very first five minutes, and showed instantly that this guy is there to play. But when things went south at Big Mike’s Place and the misfits voted out Matt, Big Mike put his head down and kept his mouth shut, letting the target move to Bill then Leif then back to Bill. We’re not even sure he’s said a word at Tribal Council, which is probably for the best. He showed that he’s still kind of a dick by mauling Leif in the last Immunity Challenge, but if he can keep those tendencies at bay, we won’t be surprised if Big Mike stays the course for a few weeks and then makes a big Mike move when the time comes. Odds: 15-1
Sabrina: Yes, she’s smart, incredibly strong and supremely likable, but it’s never a good sign when a tribe so easily, so quickly nominates one person to be their leader, like the original all-female Salami Tribe did with Sabrina. In many ways that’s like leading the lamb the slaughter, albeit the head lamb. Granted, she’s still in the game, on what looks to be a dominant tribe, but unless her physical gifts carry her through, we can definitely see a swift blindside heading her way, especially since she’s the kind of player no one wants to compete against towards the end. It won’t be personal, it’ll just be business. Odds: 30-1.
Tarzan: This is an interesting case. Just when we think that Tarzan is completely senile, he makes us question if he’s much smarter than he lets on, and his difficulty remembering names may legitimately be the result of a nominal aphasia. We’re just impressed that he knows those words, and if he’s actually a plastic surgeon as his bio states, and not just a medic like he’s told his tribemates, he might be an old, wrinkly snake in the grass. Unfortunately, even if Tarzan has been pulling the wool over our eyes, playing the part of an old, forgetful coot, he’s not pretending that he’s physically inept (and the tiny Speedo doesn’t help), and it’s his physical limitations, and not his mental acumen that will punch his ticket home. Odds: 88-1
Troyzan: If he can get over his fury that another player had the audacity to give himself a Tarzan-related nickname (especially since that guy’s real name doesn’t even start with a T!), then Troyzan has a good angle to make some progress in this game. Again, we really like the foursome of Troyzan, Jay, Chelsea and Kim, an alliance we may call the Fearsome Foursome, and it may benefit Troyzan the most by uniting him with younger players. Pushing for the former male tribe to go to Tribal Council was a mistake, and conveyed a poor grasp of the game, but we think Troyzan can play a solid social game (especially since, as a swimsuit photographer, he has vast experience working for and with pretty women), which will keep him around for a while, and if he keeps the giggles and idiotic proposals to a minimum he won’t appear like a significant threat. Odds: 21-1
And for fun:
The tribe has spoken and so have we. However, as always, these odds were created with a random number generator, using an unproven algorithm, and have not yet been sent out for peer review, nor have they been assessed by a third-party agency, so place your bets with extreme caution. That being said, these are 110% accurate (which, of course, is impossible, which means this is all made up).
One final prediction for tonight’s episode: Someone will go home! Bank on it.