Well, this was a long time coming, but now that we’ve reached the all-important game-changing merge and oxygen-sucking loudmouths Shamar and Brandon are gone, it seems like a good time – perhaps the only time – to deliver our Survivor: Caramoan – Fans vs. Favorites 2 Legit 2 Quit celebrity look-alikes and player odds (for those Survivors still in the game). Let’s do this a little differently this time around and look at the Favorites then the Fans. We’d tell you to buckle up, but that seems really unnecessary considering you’re probably just sitting on a couch or at a desk or maybe on the subway, and even then it’s the movement of the train and not the content of this article that is most likely to create some turbulence.
FAVORITES
Andrea: If we want to talk about people who really learned from Boston Rob (as opposed to Former Federal Agent(?) Fillip), then Andrea might be the one in that discussion. Her acuity for the game is what hurt her last time – and her infatuation with Matt – as Boston Rob respected her ability and intelligence but more importantly recognized her as a threat. There’s no one as cunning as Boston Rob on Caramoan, so Andrea has a shot to put it all together this time, especially now that she’s made the merge with the new powerhouse Goya tribe. However, there’s something in those smokey eyes that tells us that she’s going to play the game a little too hard and a little too paranoid, and that will be her downfall (much like Tara Reid experienced a similar fall. But that was due to the shots of Patrón and required several stitches). 11:1
Brenda: During her first appearance on Nicaragua Brenda fancied herself in the mold of Parvati, a smart, fit, attractive black widow who would pull all the strings but align herself with a man to carry out the dirty work. However, it didn’t quite work out that way, and her plan soon fell apart. She seems to be playing the opposite, or at least different, game this time around, remaining in the background, letting others take a more vocal role. However, it’s risk-reward in this game, and flying under the radar might not work out either, as in doing so Brenda’s failed to make strong alliances. As we learn from the young Asian girl above, Brenda needs some people to play with. 21:1
Cochran: We’ll give credit where credit is due: LeBron is really making us into believers with his standout performance this season, leading The Heat to that incredible winning streak. Also, Cochran has been playing a pretty solid, if quiet game. Certainly, physical challenges are never going to be Cochran’s strong suit, but he’s seemed to shore up the other flaws in his game that he demonstrated on his first go-round, namely his insecurity, second-guessing, and his tendency to be overwhelmed by more forceful personalities like Coach. He’s clearly learned from his prior experience and melded that knowledge with the lessons he’s learned from years of studying Survivor as a fan. We don’t think he has what it takes to make it to the end – he can’t compete in the more intense individual challenges and he mihg lack the killer instinct to make the big move – but he’s a safe bet to go far, as he’ll won’t rankle any feathers with his attitude and won’t raise any red flags with his challenge performances. Odds: 27:1
Corinne: This is the player we knew least about going into this season, having missed the Gabon cycle completely, and her play so far has shown us why. Like many of the players we were familiar with, it’s a real stretch to call Corinne a “favorite.” Already on the outs with Stealth ‘R’ Us CEO Fillip, we’re not sure her stature really increased with the tribal shakeup. Growing more annoying by the week, and her obsession with gays might be her downfall. She’s willing to endure Fill to go deeper in the game, but not sure her alliance feels the same way about her. 38:1
Dawn: Dawn’s an interesting one. She’s strong, but not too strong. She’s shown a willingness to make a move when necessary, but not seen as cutthroat or deceitful, and has the potential to betray without burning bridges. Super sweet, she can serve that all important mother-figure role, but still young and smart enough to not get locked into that position. So far she’s coasting along, and we think that it’s going to be a while before her name is mentioned. Will be able to curry favor with the jury, should she make it that far, so if she can stay emotionally stable she’s one of our best bets. 8-1
Erik: Almost forgot about Erik, and you can’t blame us. Dude has been giving…uh…what’s her name…Julia, that’s right..dude has been giving Julia a run for her money as quietest, least present Survivor. However, as opposed to Julia, Erik has experience, and he has game, so this could work to his advantage. He might not be a board member of Stealth ‘R’ Us, but he has the physical talent and the silent demeanor that make him an attractive potential alliance partner. Like Brenda, he needs to be careful to not find himself on the outside of a power bloc, but like Dawn he’s good enough, well-liked enough, and unintimidating enough that he could make a real run at this game (assuming he doesn’t start giving away immunity). 13:2
Former Federal Agent (?) Fillip: FFAF has taken an interesting approach to this season, deciding to live action role play his entire time on Caramoan, reviving his character of The Specialist, but with brand new powers and an additional backstory. He’s taken time studying Boston Rob’s masterwork in Redemption Island, and is hoping to emulate that successful strategy. Unfortunately, as Brandon noted as he was being carted away by security, Fill is no Boston Rob, and, once again, he’s being played by his alliance. A safe bet to make it to the final three, an infinitesimal chance of winning the whole thing, especially playing against competitors twice his size. 1,000,000:1
Malcolm: Although technically a Favorite, Malcolm straddles the line between Fan and Favorite since he’s played the game before but no one knows what to expect from him. Which should, like with Russell on Heroes vs. Villains, put the other players on notice. If he was brought right back after Philippines, he was brought back for a reason, right? Well, so far, the other Survivors haven’t seemed to be all that wary of the newest favorite, and Malcolm has taken pains to fly under the radar, to make them forget they should be concerned. He was the best player in Philippines – regardless of who won the million – and with another Idol in his pocket and a burgeoning super-alliance with Reynold, this could be Malcolm’s game to lose. He has the social game, he has the physical gifts, and he has the grasp of the big picture. As long as no one else figures it out before him, he just might win it all this time around.7:2
FANS
Eddie: The third member of the peach-hoodie club narrowly escaped the chopping block when the tribes realigned, but with the numbers still against him, and with Reynold still being able to find an Immunity Idol at will, Eddie is still in considerable danger. Reynold can only take Eddie so far, and we’re not sold that Eddie has the skill – social, physical, tactical or otherwise – to go much further without him. 25-1.
Michael: At this point, Michael has two hopes: Corinne, because everyone knows she loves playing with a gay, and, should she fail, God, because God Save the Gay. Unfortunately, we don’t foresee Corinne being much of a savior, leaving God as Mike’s last chance for salvation. However, as we learned through the trials and tribulations of God-fearing and Jesus-loving Matt on Redemption Island, God has no dog in this fight, he just wants to kick off his sock-lined shoes, sit back and watch some good TV. 66-1
Reynold: Ol’ Blue Eyes has made tossing – whether it be bean bags, balls, rings, grappling hooks – his bread and butter, and it’s gone a long way towards keeping him in this game. Also keeping him in this game: his uncanny ability to find Immunity Idols without really even trying. He’s had a target on his back since Day 1, when he spearheaded the formation of the cool, young and pretty alliance on the Fans tribe and openly campaigned against Shamar, and that target remains even though he’s survived til the merge. He could be this year’s Malcolm: good-looking, clutch in challenges, emerged from a doomed, decimated tribe with an Immunity Idol. However, he might not be as cool and calm as Malcolm (unless the challenge requires steady hands), and his overeagerness – as demonstrated by revealing his Idol to Malcolm – may come back to haunt him. Already has the reputation of being a slimy, suspicious used car salesman, so if he makes it to the end he’ll likely have to do it through sheer force of will (and sex appeal) and not through a willing, trusting alliance. 17:1
Sherri: Sherri’s strategy essentially was “Find someone who reminds me of one of my fast-food franchise employees, preferably the loudest, most obnoxious person possible with the most emotional unbalance and earn that person’s trust and loyalty, and use that person as my human shield.” Unfortunately, that person was Shamar, and he’s gone, which means that Sherri now is as naked as Sandra Bullock in The Proposal. She’s the only female Fan left, and arguably the weakest female player still in the game, so her chances are fading. She could hang on a bit longer and make a run by becoming a swing vote now that the tribes have merged, but we think it would be hard for her to play such a passive game. Unless she has something up her sleeve, like an Idol, or some Divine Secrets (of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood), she’ll be hard pressed to make it 28 Days. Love Potion No. 29:1
AND THE FALLEN
Jumped The Snark 